Millions of rural Nigerians risk being left behind in the country’s digital transformation as access to technology, skills, and infrastructure remains concentrated in major urban centres, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned.

In its latest report, “From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria,” the NESG emphasises that “technology and skills development will be critical enablers across these sectors,” but cautions that unless rural populations are deliberately included, the gains of Nigeria’s digital economy will remain uneven and exclusionary.

According to the NESG, one of the biggest barriers to inclusive growth is connecting people outside major cities to productive and digital work opportunities. The Group estimates that to maintain an unemployment rate of 4.3% between 2025 and 2030, Nigeria must create 27.3 million new jobs—an annual average of 4.55 million net formal jobs.

To meet this target, the Group identifies four key sectors with strong potential to absorb labour from low-productivity areas: manufacturing (including agro-processing), construction, ICT, and professional services. Collectively, these sectors are expected to generate 35% (9.7 million) of new formal jobs, with manufacturing alone projected to contribute 21% of the total during the period.

According to the NESG, one of the biggest barriers to inclusive growth is connecting people outside major cities to productive and digital work opportunities. The Group estimates that to maintain an unemployment rate of 4.3% between 2025 and 2030, Nigeria must create 27.3 million new jobs—an annual average of 4.55 million net formal jobs.

The rural-urban divide 

The report reveals that the concentration of formal employment in a handful of states continues to deepen Nigeria’s rural-urban inequality.

“At 33.8%, Lagos had the highest share of wage earners in total employment in 2023, followed by FCT (27.2%), Oyo (26.7%), Rivers (26.5%) and Bayelsa (25.5%). Jigawa (3.3%), Sokoto (3.8%) and Kebbi (4.6%) had the lowest shares. In these three states, there is a heavy reliance on government and informal activities for employment,” the report notes.

To address this imbalance, the NESG calls for policy reforms that extend beyond urban-based training and support programmes. “The goal should be to improve the productivity of informal enterprises, providing these businesses with the tools and environment they need to grow, innovate and contribute meaningfully to the economy—and, in the process, become formal firms,” it adds.

Skills gaps and the ICT opportunity 

While both government and private sector initiatives have introduced large-scale digital training programmes, the NESG stresses that rural and remote communities must not be left behind.

“Without deliberate investments in building these competencies, Nigeria risks falling behind in the global transition to clean and smart energy, both in terms of job creation and energy access,” the Group warns.

“At 33.8%, Lagos had the highest share of wage earners in total employment in 2023, followed by FCT (27.2%), Oyo (26.7%), Rivers (26.5%) and Bayelsa (25.5%). Jigawa (3.3%), Sokoto (3.8%) and Kebbi (4.6%) had the lowest shares. In these three states, there is a heavy reliance on government and informal activities for employment,” the report notes.

Despite progress in digital skills development, challenges persist. Access to quality training in rural areas remains limited, while many existing programmes lack clear pathways to employment or entrepreneurial support. As technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, cloud computing, and cybersecurity gain ground globally, Nigeria must align its training curricula with emerging digital realities, the report adds.

Nevertheless, the ICT sector stands out as a model for how targeted investment in skills and technology can drive inclusive growth. The report highlights that with the right mix of vision, partnerships, and effective implementation, “it is possible to both close the skills gap and unlock new sources of productivity and employment.”

The soft skills deficit 

Beyond technical training, the NESG draws attention to a growing shortfall in soft skills among Nigeria’s labour force. “There is growing frustration among employers regarding the absence of foundational workplace skills, including willingness to learn, meeting deadlines, communicating clearly, and working in teams,” the Group says.

It warns that addressing this gap is as crucial as digital training, as both technical and soft skills underpin productivity and employability in a technology-driven economy.

Economic implications and the way forward 

The NESG argues that Nigeria’s path to economic diversification must ensure broad-based access and opportunity across all regions. “While crude oil will continue to play a role in the Nigerian economy in the coming decades, there is still an urgent need for diversification,” it notes.

Failure to expand access to decent, technology-enabled jobs, the report cautions, could deepen social instability. “If the economy does not create better jobs at scale, Nigeria will continue to reap the social consequences in the form of insecurity and conflicts,” the NESG warns.

The Group says that bridging Nigeria’s rural-urban digital divide will be central to achieving inclusive prosperity. Expanding access to digital skills, infrastructure, and employment opportunities, it says, will determine whether Nigeria’s technology revolution becomes a truly national driver of productivity and shared growth.

“Digital transformation must not stop at the city limits,” the NESG stresses. “To build a future of decent work and inclusive growth, rural Nigerians must also be empowered to participate fully in the country’s evolving digital economy.”