MTN Nigeria, the country’s largest mobile network operator with a 36.58 percent market share by operator, has experienced a decline in its subscriber base following the enforcement of the subscriber registration scheme imposed by government.

The subscriber loss by the largest telco in the country is part of the highlights of the disconnection order issued by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to telecoms companies under the National Identity Number (NIN)-SIM card linkage scheme.

According to NCC data, the South African owned telco lost an estimated 7.2 million active subscriptions between December 2023 and February 2024. In December, MTN reported having 87 million active subscribers, which dropped to 79.7 million by February 2024, coinciding with the NIN-SIM linkage deadline set by the telecoms regulator, NCC.

The NCC, in a directive issued in December 2023, mandated all telecoms operators, including MTN, Airtel, Globacom, and 9Mobile, to fully bar phone lines not linked to subscribers’ NINs by February 28, 2024. The policy aimed to curb criminal activities perpetrated through anonymous phone lines.

MTN confirmed disconnecting approximately 4.2 million lines for which subscribers did not submit their NINs before the deadline. However, the telecoms company downplayed the financial impact, stating that many of the disconnected lines were low-value subscribers. MTN also reported that 19 million lines on its network were undergoing verification, with 4.3 million and an additional 4.2 million disconnected as of February.

The remaining lines with unverified NINs face potential barring by March 29, 2024, which could lead to further subscriber losses for MTN. The telecoms company says it is working with authorities to expedite the verification process and has implemented various channels for subscribers to complete their NIN linkage.

Despite a slight increase in subscribers porting their numbers in to MTN (from 1,661 in December 2023 to 2,270 in January 2024), the NCC market information also indicated a significant decline in MTN’s overall subscriber base due to the NIN-SIM linkage.

While MTN experiences a subscriber decline of 7.2 million, reports suggest contrasting fortunes for its competitors. Airtel and Globacom reportedly saw marginal subscriber gains during the NIN-SIM linkage exercise. Airtel added 767,887 new customers, while Globacom’s database increased by 321,869. This resulted in a slight rise in their subscriber bases, contrasting with the significant decline experienced by MTN, the market leader by subscriber base. 

The NIN-SIM linkage has had a significant impact on subscription services in Nigeria. Active subscriptions for mobile services in Nigeria declined by over six million in January this year to 218 million, compared to 224.4 million as of December 2023. This translates to a decline in the country’s teledensity, which measures mobile phone penetration, from 103.66% in December to 100.75% in January.

The NCC has announced fresh rounds of SIM card disconnection scheduled for March 29 and April 15, 2024. This is expected to be a “massive” disconnection exercise targeting subscribers who have not linked their NINs or have multiple SIM cards linked to unverified NINs. On March 29th, the focus will be on those with more than five unverified SIM cards while subscribers with less than five unverified SIM cards will face disconnection on April 15th.